When it comes to figuring out what the electorate may look like for Tuesday’s Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, I think it’s instructive to look at three different sets of Wisconsin electorates.
1. The primary election in February.
2. The April election in 2017 – where Tony Evers easily won the School Superintendent race with a Dem-leaning electorate, and then contrast with the 2013 April election where now-Chief Justice Pat Roggensack cruised to a win with a GOP-leaning electorate. April 2016 is a bad example because of the much higher turnout due to contested presidential primaryies going on for both parties.
3. The November elections of 2016 and 2014, to give an idea of the difference between a November electorate and an April.