It also seems that both of these numbers were affected by the brutal weather of mid-February (when the employment survey was made). The largest job losses for February were in construction (-31,000), and it seems likely that many lower-wage part-timers had hours reduced due to the weather, which would mean more wages were earned by higher-wage full-time workers.
So while the top lines of 20,000 jobs may make you think “uh oh”, and a 3.4% annual increase in wages may make you think “great!”, I’m not sure either apply here. Both are the opposite of what we saw in the January report, while the average of those 2 months is mostly on line with where we’ve been.
I told you to look out for the new Wisconsin jobs report today, coming on the heels of the bad performance in the “gold standard” Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages(QCEW) which I discussed in this post.
That’s because the January report would feature revisions based on that QCEW report. And sure enough, that Wisconsin jobs report came out today with sizable downgrades in job growth.
Revisions from previously-reported Dec 2018 Wis jobs figures
All jobs -17,100
Private sector jobs -13,400
[The Australian Fair Work] full bench said Mr Urso’s evidence could ‘simply not be accepted’ saying he ‘could not seriously have thought that a drink in the nature of a peach martini would only contain one standard nip of alcohol,’ it said. ‘The evidence tends to suggest that he had significantly more than five drinks, in which case ‘free pouring’ loses whatever capacity it had to exonerate him,’ it said.”
A couple of weeks back, I noticed that the “gold standard” Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) released the top line numbers, and it showed Wisconsin continuing to stay far behind the US rate of job growth. However, this only covered all jobs and urban areas, so I wanted to see further information with more detail.
Today, the full “gold standard report was released, and as usual, feel free to go to the QCEW map site to break down the data by state and county.
As predicted, Wisconsin’s numbers were bad for the September 2017-September 2018 time period, and were well behind the numbers the Walker Administration were claiming before the November elections.
The latest Federal employment figures show Wisconsin to be a regional laggard which actually lost 300 private sector jobs in February, added only a paltry 18,600 private sector jobs in the year from February, 2017 to February, 2018, and is still 20,000 private sector jobs below the 250,000 Walker repeatedly promised in his 2010 and 2012 gubernatorial campaigns to create by January, 2015, the Capital Times reports.
And adding an average of 2,700 jobs a month in Wisconsin is less than half what we should be adding if we want our job growth to keep up with the rest of the country, and it was even worse in the 6 months before then. This means the Walker jobs growth has blow up wide in since this time last year, getting bigger by more than 32,000 private sector jobs, and reaching over 103,500 jobs during the 5-year reign of error known as the Age of Fitzwalkerstan.
You may have seen the headlines from the latest release of the “gold standard” jobs report – the BLS’s Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages (QCEW). And as I predicted earlier this week, Wisconsin fared quite poorly.
Wisconsin continues to lag behind much of the nation in creating private sector jobs.
Figures released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday show the state’s growth rate during the 12 month period that ended in September of last year was 1.2 percent, compared to a national rate during that time period of 2.2 percent.
Wisconsin was listed as 36th among the states for the pace of job creation, adding 29,616 private sector jobs during the reporting period.
36th in the nation is bad enough, and is virtually no different than the 37th place Wisconsin was in for the last QCEW survey, which carried into June 2015. Perhaps just as bad is the fact that we continued to lag most of the Midwest in private sector job growth in this report, ending up 6th out of 7 states.
We get to see where Wisconsin matches up with the rest of the country on Wednesday, and if the last report is any indication, there is no reason to think the state isn’t much different than the 37th in the nation status it had 3 months ago. In addition, the Wisconsin DWD’s pre-release of the QCEW [Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages] numbers also indicates that Wisconsin’s month-to-month job totals will also go down when those figures are benchmarked to the QCEW as part of the January 2016 jobs release on Thursday.
MADISON – In a sign of growing economic turmoil, Gov. Walker’s administration quietly acknowledged over the busy holiday season that Wisconsin surpassed 10,000 layoffs last year as a result of plant closings and economic challenges. The dismal news confirms that 2015 was Wisconsin’s worst year for job losses since Gov. Walker took office – far exceeding the 6,186 workers affected by mass layoffs and plant closings in 2014. The dramatic spike in layoffs have surprised many given the strong economic growth in neighboring Midwestern states.
I’ve expressed skepticism regarding last week’s report from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development of 16,100 total jobs and 15,100 jobs being added in Wisconsin for October. And we got a follow-up note on that report on Wednesday that also makes me cock an eyebrow, this time in the form of the local jobs and unemployment rate report.
This new DWD report showed the alleged jobs gains in the state were heavily concentrated in only a few areas of the state. Also worth noting is that (for some reason) they can’t give specific seasonally-adjusted numbers for the growing Madison area, because Green County was added for that MSA in the last year….
So let’s see how these figures shake out in the next couple of months, as the seasonal adjustments level out. The large amount of mass layoffs and lower-than-projected revenues seem to belie the numbers that indicate job growth boomed in Wisconsin for October, and I’m very interested in seeing what happens as a large amount of data comes in over the next few weeks to see which direction wins out.
“For the first 9 months of 2015, Wisconsin companies have notified state of more than 8600 layoffs. That’s more than 2,000 more than the year end totals of the last 3 years.”
So between a disproportionate amount of jobs being in non-metro areas in Wisconsin, as well as the disparities between seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted jobs figures seems to indicate some adjustment that needs to shake out in the next couple of months as Summer ends and things adjust back into non-tourist season in Wisconsin. The question is which direction are those adjustments going to be made?