Look at the change you get from “likely” voters to “registered” voters. Walker loses support across the board except among women, and those with bachelor’s degrees or above (and he still loses both demographics). These crosstabs and differences in sample make a clear point. If the electorate in November is overwhelmingly older, white, male, and with more Republicans coming to the polls, then Scott Walker will probably win. If it’s younger, more diverse, with more women, and with Dems turning out, then Burke will likely win.