That’s not ‘tightening’

Same poll shows Biden leading Trump by 10 points among independents. You can't find a modern election result where someone won independents in WI by 10 points, but then only one overall by four. It's silly. https://t.co/ev7PQrwQ3F — Jud Lounsbury (@JudLounsbury) September 9, 2020                      

Marquette Law Poll gets WI wrong

The last presidential election in Wisconsin the conservative / moderate / liberal split was 34/40/25. The latest Marquette Poll 39/34/21. At the most basic level, a poll sample is supposed to mirror to the population it seeks to measure. This does not do that. pic.twitter.com/JsM5BexwCo — Jud Lounsbury (@JudLounsbury) February 27, 2020      

Marquette Poll on GOP 

First of all, Gov Walker’s approval rating was newsworthy in that nothing has changed on that front. Still stuck below 40% (38.8%, to be exact), and not significantly different from what we’ve seen this Summer. What is noteworthy in this poll is that Walker’s disapproval comes from every region of the state.

Scott Walker approve-disapprove, Feb 2016 ,
City of Milwaukee 27.7-69.1
Rest of MKE market 44.0-48.5
Madison market 25.1-70.1
GB/Appleton market 45.0-46.6
Rest of Wisconsin 42.0-51.3

Via Jake’s Economic TA Funhouse: Marquette Poll shows Walker, GOP losing all swing areas, moderates.

Underwater Most Places

A key to Walker’s re-election in November 2014 was that he won decisively in Northeastern Wisconsin, and in much of rural Wisconsin. Which is why it is noteworthy that Walker’s declining approval ratings aren’t just limited to the urban parts of the state, but are dropping throughout Wisconsin, putting him significantly underwater everywhere except the Milwaukee suburbs.

Walker approval/disapproval
City of Milwaukee 24-68
Rest of MKE Market 52-44
Madison Market 29-67
GB-Appleton Market 37-57
Rest of State 33-62

Via Jake’s Economic TA Funhouse: Marquette Poll shows Walker has lost NE Wisconsin, and Bernie can win it for Dems.